iroon.com: Blogs: No Game Changer: Strike or No Strike, Iran's Clerical Regime will benefit from it

Regardless of whether the US decides in the coming days, weeks or months to strike or not the Syrian regime, the Clerical Regime in Iran will still be benefitting from the geo strategic consequences of that attack ... as such I don't see this current dilemma as a game changer when it comes to America's intentions to break a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue or in it's relationship with the Mullahs. Unfortunately for us these Clerics are cunning like Foxes ... I wouldn't be surprised if behind the scenes they would be ready to cooperate with the US on Syria ... both Javad Zarif ( Iran's foreign Minister) and President Rohani have been sending mixed signals as to what they would do if Syria was attacked and it didn't sound as a "warmongering" rhetoric we are so familiar with when it comes to the IRI but rather reflected a "realistic" tone ... ultimately that is what worries me most ... the American Republicans think that they have cornered Obama on the Syrian dilemma but in reality I would suspect that the current crisis could actually benefit Obama's Iran strategy on the long term ... the US Secretary of State John Kerry wants to come across as "strong willed" and "bold" on Syria only to show that he ( if not the President) and the US Administration are equally determined on Iran but that "bold" stance in my opinion is at best a coverup to get into direct talks with a deemed "pragmatic" Iran ... unfortunately Time is on the side of the Mullahs ...

If a strike occurs ( given the endorsement of the Arab League and regional powers like Turkey) it will put the Obama administration back on the saddle when it comes to it's foreign policy credibility as it did after the successful Osama Bin Laden operation.

If congress votes no, then he can put the blame on the Republicans lack of cooperation.

Eitherway the grand bargain with the mullahs will take place and they know that too ...

Hence why in my humble opinion the Strike and it's eventual collateral regional implications will be no game changer !

Related Blog:

Who Will Be Next Secretary of State: Ambassador Susan Rice or NIAC's Choice : John Kerry ? (dated: 22-Nov-2012 , Iranian.com)

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Rugpeddler | Follow | 10 years ago

Iran remains fearful of the strike if it occurs, no doubt about it. Whenever the Iranian regime is cornered it goes in to a "benevelant advisor" mode. From the supreme leader to the president and now the "western educated" foreign minister, all are advising American officials not to repeate their past mistakes. Why, because they know failure to strike Syria means incapability and weaknesson on the part of the U.S and its allies. Furthermore failure to strike means IR can do whatever it wants, as far as its neuclear policy is concerned, withou punishment. If on the other hand the U.S strikes, the Mullahs will have their back to the wall. They know that the U.S will mean business and there is a price to pay. Miscalculation is the most common source of dictatorial regimes falling. Saddam too thought the Americans would not remove him and lived to see the result of his own miscalculation. In spite of their success in supressing the Iranian people's democratic rights, the regime has been an utter failure in its foreign and economic policies. They will be the loser if the U.S strikes Syria which will inevitably lead to the removal of Assad. That is why the Mullahs have been spending billions to save Assad.

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